Oklahoma State dominated Oklahoma in the first round of Bedlam this year at Lloyd Noble Center in Norman.
The Cowboys went on to a comfortable 31-3 win over the Sooners on their turf, which would indicate they should be in for another comfortable win on Sunday in Stillwater. But there have been a few changes on both sides of the mat. AJ Ferrari is done for the year, which flips 197 in OU’s favor and a new starter has emerged at 149 for the Sooners, who could also shake things up a bit.
For OU to pull an upset over the Cowboys, the first key is those two matches. OU should win 197 comfortably, and their freshman at 149, Willie McDougald, has been really good for OU since taking over the starting job. Kaden Gfeller has performed well, and it’s difficult to see many scenarios where OU could win this unless they pull the upset here.
But all things start at 125. For OU to have any real shot, they’ll need to win that match. Last time out Trevor Mastrogiovanni beat Joey Prata 6-4. Mastrogiovanni has continued to look really solid this season with the exception of one loss vs. Iowa State, but Prata’s losses are all to top guys. He has the ability to pull the upset here. If Mastro comes out the gate with a win for the Cowboys, it’s going to be some serious uphill sledding for OU the rest of this dual.
At 133, 165 and 184 OSU will be the heavy favorite. Bonus point wins in any of these for OSU would be huge.
Oklahoma State won 157 and 174 last time. 157 has been a split rivalry that could certainly go either way, and at 174 OSU’s Dustin Plott has a 2-1 record over OU’s Anthony Mantanona, who will be looking to finish off his last regular season match by evening series.
The most feasible way this could slip away from the Cowboys would be for OU to win 125, 149, 157, 174, 197 and heavyweight. That scenario would be the Sooners winning literally every toss up match to win the dual. If they were to lose one of those, give up no bonus and maybe grab a bonus point win at 197, that would be one other feasible scenario.
Overall, even with taking a few hits to their lineup this season, the Cowboys should win this round of Bedlam again on Sunday fairly comfortably. But with the perfect storm, OU could pull off an upset.
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